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China, Japan, And The Relative Pre-March Euro$ Calm In February
The month of February 2022, the calm before the latest storm. Russians went into Ukraine toward the month’s end, collateral shortage became scarcity, maybe a run right at February’s final day, and...
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Euro$ #5 in Goods
Last Friday, S&P Global (the merged successor to IHS Markit) reported that its PMI for German manufacturing fell to 54.1. It hadn’t been that low for more than a year and a half. Worse than that,...
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One More For Euro$ #5: The Mainstream Downgrade Parade
It wouldn’t be Euro$ #5 without perhaps the last of its rituals completed: the mainstream downgrades. Go back in time to each of the prior episodes, markets change, the data inflects, and then only...
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Looking Back At Chaotic March Through TIC
March ended up being a pretty wild ride. Lost amidst the furor over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the month began with a couple clear “collateral days. T-bill rates along with repo fails echoed that...
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T-bills Targeted Target
Yesterday’s market “volatility” spilled (way) over into this morning’s trading. It ended up being a very striking example, perhaps the clearest and most alarming yet, of a scramble for collateral. The...
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Weekly Market Pulse: Inevitable?
Inevitable adjective incapable of being avoided or evaded I heard that word a lot last week. There is now a fully formed consensus that the US, and indeed the world, now faces an inevitable recession....
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No Pandemic. Not Rate Hikes. Doesn’t Matter Interest Rates. Just Globally...
The fact that German retail sales crashed so much in April 2022 is significant for a couple reasons. First, it more than suggests something is wrong with Germany, and not just some run-of-the-mill...
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Angry April TIC Zeroed In On China’s CNY and Japan’s JPY
If the March gasoline/oil spike hit a weak global economy really hard and caused what more and more looks like a recessionary shock, a(n un)healthy part of it was the acceleration of Euro$ #5...
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Weekly Market Pulse: A Fatal Conceit
Inflation* in the US is falling rapidly with the CPI rising just 0.9% in the second half of 2022 versus 5.4% in the first six months. Existing home sales are down 14.6% in the last 3 months and 34%...
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Macro: Flash PMI — US, EU, Japan, UK, Australia
The initial print for October was good in the US. Europe continues to struggle. Japan weakens slightly. The UK flat-lines below 50. Australia drops. Numbers above 50 should indicate an economy is...
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